As the House of Representatives prepares to resume from its two-week recess, the question many are asking is, what will be the fate of the Speaker? What are the intrigues at play now ahead of the resumption? Who, from Etteh's Southwest zone is likely to replace her in case it comes to that?

THE bugle of war blown last weekend between the Integrity Group, an 'opposition' group in the House of Representatives and the media machinery of Speaker Patricia Olubunmi Etteh has been heard in the National Assembly before.

The difference this time is that the battle will be fought at the House of Representatives' wing of the National Assembly and not the Senate. At least for now.

About two years ago, erstwhile Media Special Assistant to former Senate President Adolphus Wabara ventured into last minute spins to salvage his drowning principal, but to the chagrin of a section of the Senate. In pitching his word against those of Senators eager to oust Wabara, Henry Ugbolue couldn't help but throw snippets at a few distinguished Senators.

Last week, Funke Egbemode, Special Adviser to the Speaker on Media, traversed the same road for embattled Etteh whose fate will be determined by the 359 other members in the House of Representatives on October 16.

Of all things, Egbemode didn't take swipes at any of the Honorables but provoked their wrath all the same with a press statement. Turning in its report last week Wednesday, the adhoc panel that probed allegations of impropriety in contracts awards against the House leadership deliberately left out recommendations and fingering of culprits, leaving the tossing of blames to the whole House and the Public. But in so doing, the panel made it abundantly clear that due process was circumvented to a large extent in the award of the contracts. The instances mentioned were namely for the renovation of the official houses of the Speaker and Deputy Speaker and the purchase of official Landcruiser jeeps for the principal officers of the House of Representatives. Laying their hands on the report as it was being tabled, members of the House's press corps quickly construed the report as indicting the Speaker and published same the next day.

Reacting with commensurate speed, the Speaker's media office issued a statement signed by Egbemode, debunking the reports by the press. Egbemode's statement was emphatic in declaring Etteh as not being indicted and in fact innocent until proven guilty.

Explains Uche Awom, Press Secretary to the Speaker: "The House has only just received the report of the panel it set up to carry out investigations on its behalf. It did not say whether anybody was right or wrong. The chairman of the panel addressed a press conference and has said the same thing."

In a chat with journalists shortly after tabling the report, probe panel chairman, Hon. Dave Idoko had said it was beyond the mandate of his team to indict or recommend sanctions. For all he knew, his panel was charged with a responsibility to investigate and come out with the findings as to what happened, especially the alleged disregard of due process.

The nine-man panel's findings and what it presented as

conclusions spoke volumes. In addition to stating unequivocally that "due process was not completely followed" in the award of the contracts, the panel raised suspicions in the attendance and timing of the meeting where approvals were appended and contracts awarded. It also emphasized that the tendering and award process began from the speaker rather than the clerk of the National Assembly.

But the Egbemode statement drew public attention to the fact that despite findings and conclusions, Speaker Etteh could not be adjudged indicted until the report is considered and she is declared culpable. Such pronouncement of guilt by the whole house is done in form of resolutions after a matter is debated and voted on.

If the Speaker's media crew had merely attempted to set the records straight, their message left a sour in the mouths of the anti-Etteh Reps who are bent on watching the Speaker deliver her resignation speech in the coming week. It also switched on the stage lights for Battle 3 of the ongoing tragic-comedy christened by the press as Ettehgate.

Integrity Gears Up For War

The Integrity Group which has carried on the battle against the Speaker for two months running, views the statement from Egbemode as a warped line of thinking. For its members-some of whom are the House of Representatives' most experienced and most accomplished - equate it with waiting for a doctor to declare a person not breathing and without a pulse beat as dead.

The group claims it was expecting Speaker Etteh to bow

out of office in honour and with an apology to Nigerians rather than fight to retain her seat. And they will be coming to the floor of the House to repeat the same when the House resumes plenary sittings next week. The House embarked on a two-week break allegedly to enable its Committees meet with establishments of the federal executive over next year's budget. Integrity group went as far as soliciting the assistance of the public in calling for the latter's resignation. "The report of the Ad-Hoc Committee has clearly and loudly passed a verdict of guilt on Madam Speaker over the contract scam. The report's conclusions are enough indictment on Madam Speaker as the political head of the House of Representatives under whose authority and with whose involvement the horrendous wrong doings as unearthed by the Committee were perpetrated... Alas, this is not to be and Madam Speaker has continued to dig in. She is obviously oblivious of the damage the allegations and indeed the findings of the Report have done to not only her but the institution. Madam Speaker is obviously on a journey of descent to the precipice. May we call on Nigerians to help save her from her chosen path of self destruction before she drags the House of Representatives along," the group concluded.

Why Etteh Is Adamant

If Etteh is sitting tight, it's because of her perception of the whole saga as a gang-up against her person by her adversarial colleagues working with the aid of the National Assembly bureaucracy. For all she cares, she is largely innocent of most, if not all the charges against her. She also feels the real matter in contention is far remote from the issue of a contract award process gone awry. In her perception, the whole fight is a political one being waged by the strongmen of the House who feel betrayed by her selection of committee chairmen last July. While the saga took its roots from the silent protests and condemnation of her constitution of committees and appointment of chairmen, it had gone beyond that at present and to the public domain.

Will The Speaker Go?

Nigeria's scandal-guzzling public is as excited as it is disappointed over the matter and wants to believe she reeks of guilt in the contract affair. The battle has also raged out into the realm of Nigerian influential political champions to the extent that one of the probe panel's members was nominated by a non-parliamentarian. As at press time, scheming had reached an advanced stage both for a replacement and Madam Spaker's survival. The House of Representatives is currently stratified into groups angling to protect and advance different interests in relation to whether Etteh stays otherwise.

Successors-In-Waiting

From the moment Etteh announced her chairmanship appointments and jetted out to South Africa, an army of possible replacements arose, some eagerly and some as reluctant drafts. The names bandied so far, more by the media than the Reps themselves, are Dave Salako (Ogun), Wole Oke (Osun), Titilayo Akindaunsi (Ekiti), and Dimeji Bankole. All are second-time Reps of Southwest extraction and occupying committee chairmanship positions.

Dave Salako

However, if Etteh is to vacate office and has a say in whom her replacement should be, Salako is the most unlikely to succeed her. Among the eldest and most respected Reps from the Southwest, Salako was the most obstinate rival she had during her run for office of Speaker. Both coming from a political culture where seniority in age and office is revered, Salako was about the only Yoruba Rep who stood up to Etteh during her years as Deputy Chief Whip and doubling as regional caucus' PDP leader. That Salako was appointed to a chairmanship position a few Reps would be excited about spoke much about their relationship.

Titilayo Akindaunsi

She is about Etteh's most trusted friend in the House, hence, her appointment as Chairman of the Committee on House Services. The Senate and House Services Committees are given to close and trusted allies of any Senate President and or Speaker. It is the Services Committee that takes charge of deciding what should be purchased and what shouldn't and arrange for same accordingly.

Given the nature of Nigerian women in high office, it is uncertain whether Etteh would want a woman to replace her so quickly, if and when she leaves office and make common a feat unknown in Africa since the inception of party politics on the continent in 1847.

A retired school principal and apparently principled, Akindaunsi was little-known in the House until her appointment to strategic chairmanship office.

The House may not also be ready for another woman as Speaker for now. The Fourth Republic as it were has presented women of Southwest extraction as hapless lot in the highest political offices of the federation. At the headship of the national tourism board and National Programme on Immunisation to the Minister of Housing and now Speakership, Yoruba women have been doomed to controversial and unceremonious exits from office. Etteh could as well break he jinx.

Wole Oke

A chartered accounted who has chaired the House's

Defense Committee since 2003, Oke is a favorite of Etteh. But coming from a state ruled by an ex-soldier who has a grip on his federal lawmakers, Oke wouldn't speak of being Speaker, no matter the urging. Governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola has been in full support of Etteh from beginning and has remained unflinching in this regard. If the military had a say in the matter of succession, Oke would probably be Speaker on account of his contacts and connections with the high commands of the armed forces and the help he has so far rendered to them since 2003.

Dimeji Bankole

Although a close friend of Etteh, Bankole also appears to have close ties with those angling to remove her from office. At the inception of the session earlier in the year, he was one in the large orchestra that helped get Etteh into office. With a military background and short service in the British Army, Bankole is the scion of a political family in Ogun State. Among the House's youngest members, he was Deputy Chairman of the House Committee on Finance from 2003 to 2007 and over-sighted reforms in Customs &

Excise.

Of the handful of Southwest Reps speculated as likely replacements, Bankole is not one that Etteh would want to frustrate. That is, if her assigning him to chair the Land Transport Committee- at a time when government is all out to invest heavily in resurrecting the railways - is evidence of her confidence. Bankole also appears to appeal to the majority northern caucuses in the House, even if for reasons that are not exactly universally patriotic.

For them, a Moslem is needed to balance the equation

in the leadership of the National Assembly.

At a time when the north tended to view every move of immediate-past Obasanjo presidency with suspicion, Bankole supplied firepower. Claiming a desire to avert a legislature-executive crisis over Reps' demands for money to finance projects, Bankole and his team dissected the 2004 budget estimates and fished out undesignated N100 billion lying loose in the President's draft. Shortly after the 2005 Budget was submitted for presidential assent, Bankole and his team blew the whistle on an alleged signing of a counterfeit Appropriation Act, refigured from the one

passsed by the National Assembly.

Northern legislators have a preference for persons with whom they share a historical affinity, no matter how remote. In 2005, northern Senators ganged up to elect, Senator Ken Nnamani, a former ANPP member with whom they played politics in the defunct National Republican Convention. He was elected over his rivals in the race to succeed Wabara. Bankole, for all the northerners care is the only Yoruba person in the National Assembly with a father who was once chairman of their favourite party, the ANPP. "When the Southwest people were crying that money meant for dredging Bar beach was vired away to the north for irrigation, it was Bankole who reminded them that up to N7 billion came to the Southwest in a similar virement process two days earlier. "This is a game of interests," Frank Moneke, a senior legislative assistant in the House of Reps said, "all depends on whether the Speaker will go or stay. Nobody is sure yet."

And that includes the likes of those being touted as Etteh's possible replacements. All but Salako have expressed sympathy for their embattled 'sister' and Speaker. And none has come out openly to declare interest in running for the office. Much to the contrary, Oke released a statement to the press refuting a publication in one of the national dailies, which depicted him as meeting with Etteh on

Independence Day to intimate her of his intention to run. Oke, even went as far as declaring the seat of Speaker as occupied and 'not vacant'. "I have no aspiration to fill a seat that is not vacant; nor am I aware of any Southwest Honourable Member who has any such aspiration."

There Is No Ignoring Integrity Group

Yet another interest class in the House ahead of the d-day of debate on the report is the Integrity Group. Initially numbering as many as 280, the group is led by Farouk Lawan who is partially visible, Mercy Alumona-Isei, who is influential but unseen and Halims Agoda, its poster boy.

Other members of the group are former Benue State House of Assembly Speaker, Emmanuel Jime and Linda Ikpeazu. It was Jime's zeal that pushed him to a physical bout at the House. Ikpeazu, an ex-national beauty queen and runner-up at the Miss World is on her return journey to the House after an absence all through the fifth session (2003-2007).

Almona-Isei takes pride as the literal author of government's salvation programmes for the energy sector as immediate-past chairman of the House Committee on Gas. She is believed to have blown the whistle on the alleged scandals and proceeded for her holiday. As the crisis raged during the week, she was out of the country for a meeting of the Parliamentary network on the World Bank of which she is President for West Africa.

Representing Onitsha federal constituency, Ikpeazu is no new comer to the politics of impeachment. In 1999, she was among a clique of Reps who battled first Fourth Republic Speaker Salisu Buhari on allegations of perjury until he was forced to resign after two months in office.

Ikpeazu released a statement last week, as good as a threat to the leadership of the House that Etteh must resign or stay and not be able to govern. "The issue now is the report of the independent panel. It is not whether a member of the (Integrity) Group expressed an opinion about the presentation and consideration of the Appropriation Bill," she stated.

"That Madam Speaker lacks the moral authority to preside over the House is no longer in question. If she insists on not doing the honourable thing by resigning, it would be obvious that she won't be presiding over a peaceful House which, of course will make it impossible for the House to operate."

Ironically, it was Lawan who nominated Etteh on the Third of June for the office of Speaker. In a recent television interview, he said unequivocally that the issue at hand transcended friendship and chivalry. For him and the rest of the group, Etteh just have to leave the office for bringing the House to disrepute.

Lawmakers Touchy About Funds

In Nigeria's National Assembly, lawmakers are unforgiving of misdemeanours having to do with funds, especially monies designated for their use. Funds flow

in regularly to the Senate and House of Reps from the Consolidated Revenue Fund and from state governments, corporate bodies, groups and individuals in search of one favour or another. The fastest mode of disgraceful exit for a Senate President, Speaker or committee chairman is to covet any of these monies.

Senators and Reps could waste time on conducting an

inquiry if the money involved is not earmarked directly for sharing among lawmakers. The battles supposedly over financial misdeeds last longer for an accused if his or her supporters believe that there is an underlying or covert witch-hunt for some other reasons.

Etteh is apparently shaken and traumatised by the allegations and the probe but, is hanging on in there. Interestingly, she seems to believe that by some divine magic, the public will come to realize that she is being "hounded by an unforgiving cast of adversaries who want her down by all means for betraying them," argues Florence O. Nnoruka of Media Mail, a media consulting firm that has worked with committees and Reps at the National Assembly. "As it is now, somebody or some people will have to come out and take the fall for her if she must survive this. Nobody is doing that. Nobody from

the management side and nobody from her office or the

House leadership, even after it was said that somebody in her office owns one of the firms involved."

The Integrity group emerged in the wake of the ongoing crisis to demand a thorough investigation into the allegations. With an intimidating membership of the House's strongest personalities, the group would later fracture in two between its moderates and those going for the kill.

Etteh's backbone comprises mainly Reps who benefited from her selection of committee chairmen last July with those she appointed as Deputy Chairmen. It excludes those she let down in the club of committee leaders. Her support base could boast of a number slightly above one-third of the House of Representatives, including the splinter group from Integrity. "If she has up to 121 members on her side, she will stay on. But a lot of the times, continued loyalty or defection also depends on instructions from Governors," Nnoruka observed.

The loyalty of Federal Lawmakers to camps is also a very mobile one. Often times, if Reps are not sidling away from positions taken on the attraction of cash inducements or blackmail, they readily turn coats when failure is spotted on time for their favoured camps.

Speaker's Camp Fights Back

The Speaker's camp has a lot of firepower. It aims to exploit the loopholes of the adhoc investigative panel's report to pave way for her escape of impeachment. Its members include the Leader of the House of Representatives, Colonel-turned politician Tunde Akogun.

It was in response to Akogun's branding of Integrity members as a trouble-making lot that Ikpeazu opened fire during the week gone-by.

On getting hold of the report, pro-Etteh Reps punched holes in the draft - from its emphasis on the dispatch of contract applications from the Speaker to the Clerk of the National Assembly, to its silence on responsibilities of the National Assembly bureaucracy to its insistence that the contracts were awarded by the Body of Principal Officers alone.

Reps in this camp will be coming out to insist that all persons in attendance at the meeting where the contracts were awarded should bear responsibility collectively. They think that by naming the Body of Public Officers as the group that awarded the contracts, the panel appeared to have exonerated the management of the National Assembly and brought out four members of the House leadership to

hang.

Arguments are that most of the areas where due process were circumvented fall within the functional jurisdiction of National Assembly management. But the arguments notwithstanding, it is unlikely the speaker will go scot-free. The moral burden of signing N238 million for expenditure and an extra-budgetary one at that, still weighs heavily on her. "Even if the management had put a gun to her head, that kind of money is too incredibly high for the renovation of one palace. She should have considered it outrageous and raised objections," says Nnoruka.

Perhaps she did, or didn't. What came out glaring to the public was her attempt at justifying the approval at the public hearing convened by the investigating panel on grounds of taste. "If she spends that kind of money in just a few months, who knows how much she will spend at the end of her first year (as Speaker)," complained a member of staff of the National Assembly. "If they allow her to continue as Speaker, I don't see how the House will be able to question anybody again for any wrong doing, especially when it involves money."

Logical as this may sound, things don't always follow this course. Precisely seven years ago, members of the House displayed bundles of millions of naira beside the hallowed mace, supposedly an inducement returned by Reps after allegedly being bribed by the presidency to impeach the Speaker at the time. Nothing came out of it except fodder for the press, the approval of a private jet of choice for the President and the selection of a minister from the

House of Representatives.

On two occasions did Reps compile a litany of impeachable offenses - the Senate did it once, excluding Arthur Nzeribe's - one-man crusade against the President - only to retreat after dialogue. In a glaring and very recent precedence, former Deputy Senate President Ibrahim Mantu was accused of financial crimes and faced an investigative panel. Mantu got off the hook after a single vote saved his hide and the senate waxed stronger with a cleaner image thereafter.

How The Debate May Go

The anti-impeachment group will be insisting that specific offences be named and individual culprits be identified and pinned down to the offenses. And they are likely going to have fun doing it. If the management of the National Assembly convened a meeting and awarded contracts with a select few members of the Body of Principal Officers, whose responsibility is it to send out notices for meetings - Madam Etteh,? They may ask. If N238 million is a sacrilegious amount to dream of renovating a 7-bedroom mansion with which engineer or surveyor made the evaluation - Madam Speaker or who?

Whose responsibility is it to go to the companies'registry and crosscheck names of applicant firms in quest of contracts? Speaker, Clerk, Tenders Board, staffers? Who?

The Integrity is well aware of this line of argument and the time it will consume in debating and arguing on whether each of 11 breaches actually constitute a contravention of due process. That won't be all. After each breach of procedure is established through voting, another round of arguments will ensue over who should be held responsible.

Some Reps who are jostling to save the Speaker might reach as far in shamelessness as arguing that after all, the monies were not released, save for an advance payment of N53 million. Ultimately, another committee or the same one may be constituted to delve into the nitty-gritty of listing exact iniquities committed and whom the exact sinners are in each case. At the end of it all, Speaker Etteh might just be held on grounds of profligacy for superintending over the award of a contract to renovate a 7-bedroom mansion for N238 million.

Who Presides Over Debate Of Committee Report?

The first battle when the House resumes to consider the report will be in the selection of Speaker Plenipotentiary or acting Speaker. Etteh may be compelled to step aside. Her stepping aside will depend on the extent of the cooperation of the other majority party Principal Officers. If they agree to go - as was done by the Senate's leaders during the

Okadigbo impeachment saga - then Etteh would have no choice but to do same.

All through the struggle, her colleagues in the majority principal officers have been rock-solid behind her. As on the day of the presentation of the report, their lips and hips have been hard to read. Some have been advised to save their own necks first. If they agree with Etteh to remain on seat while the report is considered, the outcome would likely be another round of punches on the floor of the House of Representatives. If they do step aside, an Acting Speaker would be appointed. If it is an Integrity Group member, the report may not even be debated and Etteh would be 'has-been Speaker.'

While Etteh's fate is still uncertain, the House of Reps has suffered in no mean measure as a result of the crisis. At a recent reception organized for Senators and Reps from Ngwaland in Abuja by their constituents, federal lawmakers lamented the setback suffered by the House because of the ongoing crisis. Senators Nkechi Nwogu (Abia Central) and

Enyinna Abaribe (Aba South) put the prowess of the sixth Senate at par and far ahead of the House. Both Senators urged a quick and peaceful resolution of the issues, preferably with Etteh retaining her seat. "It has become an international embarrassment to the country," Nwogu told the press, wondering whether the matter would have been handled differently if Etteh had not been a woman.

The sixth session House of Representatives was inaugurated on June 3 this year; embarked on a two-week recess two days after. It spent August bickering over and investigating the killing of a Nigerian in Spain, the continued closure of Port Harcourt International Airport, wrongful compulsory retirement of senior Navy personnel; and went back on holiday. Depending on the outcome of the consideration of the probe panel's report, it would spend longer time on warfare between pro and anti Etteh Reps.